In Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay rainfall will increase and there will be a rise in temperatures in the southern part of Brazil. Using this item and referring to it is encouraged, and please use it in presentations, web pages, newspapers, blogs and reports. View this Graphic on Flickr.
Graphics included in same album View all media. Annual deforestation in the Amazon and resulting CO2 emissions.
El Nino and the Southern Oscillation is by far the most striking phenomenon caused by the interplay of ocean and atmosphere. It can be explained neither in. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases which require certain changes to take place in both the ocean and the atmosphere before an event is.
Brazilian alcohol transport fleet and regional climate benefits. CH4 emissions in ; Latin America and selected countries. Change in precipitation for scenarios A2 and B2; Tropical America. Changes to Coconut Beach Dominica after the hurricane season.
Climate impacts and tropical diseases in Colombia. CO2 emissions, energy use and economic development; Latin America and the Caribbean. CO2 emissions from transportation in ; selected countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. CO2 emissions in and Latin America and selected countries. CO2 emissions in the world and in Latin America and the Caribbean.
There can be several reasons for differences. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. Another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times.
The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast Fig. On the other hand, from the third Thursday of the month until the second Thursday of the next month, the model-based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second Thursday of the current month.
Click on the for more information on each figure. Figure 1.
Figure 3. Figure 4.
Suppressed tropical convection continued over parts of Indonesia, while near-average convection was evident near the Date Line Fig. Low-level and upper-level wind anomalies were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral.
Forecasters are leaning toward the dynamical model average, which is also supported by the current tendency of the ocean toward cooler conditions. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.
To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep. The August SST anomaly was 0.
The most recent weekly anomaly in the Nino3. SST anomalies have become slightly negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but remain above-average in the central and most of the western part of the basin. Atmospheric variables have also been neutral for the last couple of months, including low-level and upper-level zonal wind anomalies and the anomalous convection.
Subsurface temperature anomalies from the dateline eastward in the equatorial Pacific have been near to just slightly below average during the last month, with strongest negative anomalies well east from the dateline. What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model predictions as the actual probabilities. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and skill uncertainty must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, leading to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models.
Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution from that taken verbatim from the raw model predictions.
Often the system overshoots, to start the opposite phase of the cycle rather than just return to neutral conditions. During ENSO events the changes in sea surface temperature cause and are influenced by changes in atmospheric circulation i. Through atmospheric dynamics, these atmospheric changes extend well beyond the tropical Pacific region.
The Atlantic and Indian oceans are also affected, which in turn extends and prolongs the impacts. The effects vary considerably with season and location. By analysing conditions experienced during many past events, statistics of the impacts can be produced. Moreover they constitute just one albeit very important influence on climate variability. An important feature of the ENSO cycle is that its evolution is predictable several months in advance, so the impacts can be anticipated and decisions can be made to mitigate adverse effects or take advantage of favourable effects.
Predictions of the effects of an ENSO event that is initiating or in progress are best based on forecasts that take into account all known details of the recent and present state of the climate system.