US-China Strategic Competition: Towards a New Power Equilibrium

Is this the Beginning of a New Cold War?
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US-China Strategic Competition

There are some reasons for the emerging rudimentary strategic equilibrium between China and the US. First, leaders of both countries are aware that the stakes of China-US relations are so high that neither side nor the rest of the world could afford a full estrangement. For several times in the past few years, both governments released at critical junctures signals to the effect that no matter what had been disputed, both sides must not allow escalation and it was time to get back to the right track.

After the award was made, both sides appeared rather restrained. Such mutual compromise at critical moments has helped secure general stability in China-US relations. Second, leaders of the two countries have developed fairly stable high-level exchange mechanisms.

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The number of meetings between President Obama and the two successive Chinese heads of state is a record high. Xi and Obama had a series of unprecedented long, informal and in-depth meetings between leaders of the two countries at Sunnylands, Yingtai Zhongnanhai , the White House and West Lake, creating conditions for them to develop personal trust. We may need profound thinking on how to improve the strategic significance and efficiency of these dialogues but should absolutely not weaken them.

Third, China and the US have maintained strong cooperation on major global issues.

Introduction

isthrosazirppan.tk: US-China Strategic Competition: Towards a New Power Equilibrium (): S. Mahmud Ali: Books. While there is little doubt that China's domestic turn toward great power competition over vital economic and security interests. . A central goal of U.S. strategy in Asia has been to prevent a hostile hegemon from dominating the region. . militate towards new U.S. policy responses, including decoupling?.

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A is a Nash Equilibrium of the Game. The Soviet Union was firmly opposed to and largely excluded from the U. If they do not to consider carefully their actions in launching assaults on our frontiers, it will be inauspicious for them. It is a condition—a chronic condition that will have to be managed over a generation. SLB Development inks agreement to divest industrial property.

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  • The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?.

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The kaiser replied that Germany was unalterably committed to having a powerful navy. Next to Germany I care more for England than for any other country. However unimaginable conflict seems, however catastrophic the potential consequences for all actors, however deep the cultural empathy among leaders, even blood relatives, and however economically interdependent states may be—none of these factors is sufficient to prevent war, in or today.

In fact, in 12 of 16 cases over the last years in which there was a rapid shift in the relative power of a rising nation that threatened to displace a ruling state, the result was war. As the table below suggests, the struggle for mastery in Europe and Asia over the past half millennium offers a succession of variations on a common storyline.

Most of the cases in this initial round of analysis come from post-Westphalian Europe. As Otto von Bismarck sought to unify a quarrelsome assortment of rising German states, war with their common adversary, France, proved an effective instrument to mobilize popular support for his mission. After the Meiji Restoration in , a rapidly modernizing Japanese economy and military establishment challenged Chinese and Russian dominance of East Asia, resulting in wars with both from which Japan emerged as the leading power in the region.

Each case is, of course, unique. Ongoing debate about the causes of the First World War reminds us that each is subject to competing interpretations.

US-China Strategic Competition

Nonetheless, acknowledging many differences, Thucydides directs us to a powerful commonality. The preeminent geostrategic challenge of this era is not violent Islamic extremists or a resurgent Russia. It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world. Few of us realize its magnitude. Never before in history has a nation risen so far, so fast, on so many dimensions of power.

U.S. and Chinese Grand Strategy

To paraphrase former Czech President Vaclav Havel, all this has happened so rapidly that we have not yet had time to be astonished. My lecture on this topic at Harvard begins with a quiz that asks students to compare China and the United States in with their rankings today.

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The reader is invited to fill in the blanks. In a single generation, a nation that did not appear on any of the international league tables has vaulted into the top ranks. The second question in my quiz asks students: Could China become 1? In what year could China overtake the United States to become, say, the largest economy in the world, or primary engine of global growth, or biggest market for luxury goods?

Most are stunned to learn that on each of these 20 indicators, China has already surpassed the U. Will China be able to sustain economic-growth rates several times those of the United States for another decade and beyond? If and as it does, are its current leaders serious about displacing the U. Will China follow the path of Japan and Germany, and take its place as a responsible stakeholder in the international order that America has built over the past seven decades? The answer to these questions is obviously that no one knows.

Before his death in March , the founder of Singapore put the odds of China continuing to grow at several times U.